Thoughts on Proposition 8
California courts have rejected overturning the results of proposition 8. Had they done so, gay marriage would have again become legal in California.
We went through this whole debate in Canada not very long ago. The gay marriage proponents won.
For those of you who don’t follow my every word, I was neither in favour, nor was I opposed.
I was, and I remain of the opinion that the word “marriage” should be defined by society and religious institutions, not the Government or the Courts. If marriage is such a deeply person thing, then why is the Government defining it at all?
In California, however, there is another dimension – democracy.
California voters decided this outcome in a fair and legitimate democratic process. Had the courts simply overturned the decision of the people, it would have been a slap in the face to the democratic traditions of that State, not to mention the people who won.
For this reason alone, the court decision was the right decision.
There will undoubtedly be another referendum, and, failing some radical shift in California demographics, it will inevitably pass (even the Governator realizes this). Proponents of gay marriage should not fret about the court decision – winning a referendum would be a far more legitimate win, rather than through activist judges in a courtroom.
A court decision against the will of the people would only serve to enrage opponents, and further polarize the debate.
For opponents of gay marriage, the writing is on the wall. Unless they adapt a more modest proposal (such as removing the word marriage from law completely, equally and for all couples), or there is some massive demographic shift in the next 3-7 years, they will eventually lose a simple yes vs. no in this debate (and, in my opinion, so they should – for both poor strategy, and a heartless disinterest in civic fairness).
I will be watching the debate from afar (with an occasional trip to Disneyland, of course) with great interest.
Maxime Bernier
The ever brilliant Chantal Hébert has reminded us all that the most popular Quebec Conservative remains Maxime Bernier.
So the guy made a bad relationship decision (OK, really bad). I’m over it, hopefully the RCMP will be over it soon, too. Sigh.
But here are the facts – as Quebec Conservative Minister’s go, he was the biggest star to date – not just in terms of good looks and celebrity, but in terms of hard work and competency.
(Oh, and there’s a nasty rumour that he’s actually a “conservative” Conservative.)
Now he has his own blog – so what, who doesn’t? Well, most Members of Parliament don’t. Too risky.
As soon as this RCMP business is over, Maxime Bernier needs to be restored to Cabinet, and restored as Quebec Lieutenant for the party.
Here’s a fun sidebar – I just discovered a Twitter account attempting to recruit Maxime to lead the ADQ. This would be a terrible loss for the Conservative Party of Canada. Would they rename the ADQ to Action démocratique du Québec-Équipe Maxime Bernier instead of Équipe Mario Dumont?
BC Election Number Crunching and “Vote-Splitting”
STV is dead for a century.
So, we are back to the same old, same old. We all vote for Gordon Campbell because we’re scared to death of the NDP. And Gordon Campbell takes it all as a personal endorsement of his great work, while voter turnout falls and falls, as voters just get fed up and give up.
Hooray! Ugh.
On “vote-splitting”, here’s some interesting numbers for those who think about such things.
BC Conservative Party
Upon analyzing the numbers from Elections BC, there is not a single campaign where the “BC Conservative Party” split the vote and caused the NDP to win. Take any of the ridings, add the BC Liberal vote to the BC Conservative vote, and the outcome is the same.
Green Party of BC
The same can absolutely NOT be said of the Green Party (if you presume, as I do not, that the natural home for Green voters is the NDP).
I count 11 ridings where a combined Green-NDP vote would have turned the tide in favour of the NDP (and 1 which would have been an automatic recount, Vancouver-Fraserview).
The seat count was 49 to 36 for the Liberals (with Wally Oppal winning by 2 votes, so far).
If you move 11 of those seats to the NDP from the BC Liberals, we would have had a majority NDP government, with 47 to 38 seats.
How does that make you feel today?
My shortest blog post ever.
Time for Carole James to go!
The most boring election in history!
Politicians always tell you that this is “the most important election”, then follow it up with something serious sounding like “in a generation” or “since the cold war” or “since James Polk declared 54′40 or fight!”
Please.
I’d like to declare this election in British Columbia “the most boring”, and follow it up with “in the history of the universe”.
This is unfortunate, and it didn’t have to be this way.
There are issues, like, oh, say, the economy. But nobody is proposing anything interesting or colourful enough to care about. The big issues are turning out to be BC Hydro and BC Rail. Wow, dams and railroads – this is cutting edge 19th century stuff people!
If the total lack of inspiration results in low voter turnout, then I hope the BC Liberals and the rest of us enjoy the next 4 years under Premier Carole James.
Because, as any politico will tell you, the NDP is very good at getting out their vote – even when things are exceedingly dull.
I suspect things won’t be that dull once Carole James and her union buddies start running things.
Maybe I’ll have to move to somewhere a little more business-friendly – I hear Venezuela is nice.
The REAL problem with BC elections
The REAL problem with BC elections is the sorry state of the NDP.
The NDP is a party stuck in 1963. They are an unreformed socialist party. As a result, they scare the hell out of anyone who isn’t a radical socialist.
If they were a fringe party, this wouldn’t be an issue at all. The problem is that they are the only potential alternative for those who are fed up with Gordon Campbell and the Liberals. One has to presume that they will eventually win again.
If they were more like the Saskatchewan NDP, or European Social Democrats, we could grumble about an NDP victory, but at least not wake up with cold sweats, wondering whether their next move is nationalizing McDonald’s through the Ministry of Fast Food (OK, maybe that wouldn’t be so bad).
The same disease afflicts the federal wing of the NDP, but they don’t have a hope of ever winning, so their presence isn’t nearly as frightening.
So, how do we fix the problem?
The truth is, we don’t. I’m a libertarian-Conservative, I can’t help matters at all. They must fix it.
Patient, Heal Thyself.
There has been the odd movement here and there toward modernizing the party, but it’s always been quashed before it got too far. Part of the problem is the voting structure of the party itself, heavily weighted to automatic voting for unions and their proxies. But the other part is a simple lack of will on the part of moderate social democrats to take on the task.
Here is my hope for the upcoming election:
First of all, heaven help us, the NDP must lose. Carole James must move on.
What else must happen is that moderate social democrats with leadership potential must win – candidates such as John Horgan. These leaders must then have balls enough to take on the union establishment. It won’t be easy, but it will certainly make the NDP a less scary proposition for the province.
It will also be good for democracy. Instead of being herded into voting for Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals, people will be free to consider an alternative. (Of course, STV will go miles toward accomplishing this as well.)
Shouldn’t we just allow them to fester and die in their backwardness?
If STV passes, then maybe. But I don’t think it will pass. So, we’re right back where we started.
And since the NDP will eventually win again, the question isn’t do you want the NDP to form government, but what kind of NDP government do you want when they do win?
This is a double-edged sword.
If they do modernize, they would instantly become a more viable competitor, and would be far more likely to win. But the far scarier prospect is if they continue down the current path and we have a re-run of the last time they were in power.
If that happens, everyone* loses.
* Note: excluding union bosses and radical left-wing hippy protester-types.
Ignatieff’s (De)Motivational Poster
This arrived in my e-mail box this morning. I guess it’s making the rounds. It nicely sums things up, I suppose.
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