Prediction: Obama Wins Presidency, 59 Democrats in Senate

November 3, 2008 · Posted in News, Personalities 

This is an “historic” election, we are being told again and again and again. What the hell does that mean? I’d argue that, in fact, this is a “current” election, and won’t be “historic” until after it’s over.

It is interesting for a few reasons, though:

  1. There are two amazingly likable candidates. On one side, you have an intelligent, inspirational speaker talking about “change”, and we know that’s always good. On the other side, you have a straight-talking grandfather-type who tells it like he sees it. Think about it – when was the last time both sides had “likable” candidates. Hell, it’s been years since one side had a likable candidate – Gore, Kerry, Bush, Clinton (OK, somewhat likable, but a bit creepy), Dole, the older Bush, Mondale, Carter, Nixon – you get the idea.
  2. We have absolutely no idea what any of these guys will do. Will Obama tear up NAFTA and go all protectionist? Will Obama repair relations with the rest of the world, or come across as a weakling to America’s enemies? What will John McCain do on the economy? Will John McCain be seen by the world as a “Bush 2″ hardliner that won’t repair relations with the rest of the world? Hell, will John McCain live all four years? Obama has had a free ride by the media – I said “change”, let’s leave it at that. And McCain, largely, has been ignored by the media (because Obama is such a star).

(Funniest thing I heard recently (on the Fox News “Red Eye” show) by one of the guests: Obama is a celebrity, like Bono, only not as political.)

So, here’s my prediction (I’m usually wrong, for those who don’t know how awful my batting record is):

  1. Obama wins.
  2. Obama wins with over 300 Electoral Votes.
  3. Obama wins in at least one state which was NOT considered to be in play for the Democrats (something really surprising like Georgia, Indiana or North Dakota).
  4. Democrat’s Senate seat total after the election is 59.
  5. Bye-bye to the “better” Dole.
  6. Al Franken wins in Minnesota, but with less than 45% of the vote. Norm Coleman finishes in low 40s. Minnesota, man, what a weird place.
  7. Ted Stevens holds Alaskan Senate Seat with a comfortable margin.

See you tomorrow.

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Comments

  • http://notweighingourmerits.blogspot.com/ Toral

    You’ve got a good point there about likability. One can argue that the more likable candidate has won every American prsidential campaign since 1976. early in the campaign McCain and Obama seemed to be about equally likable; McCain’s need to go negative, something he had to do with Obama’s having a lead, put him on the short wnd of that comparison.

    My preds:
    President
    Obama-Biden 353, McCain-Palin 185
    Obama-Biden 52%, McCain-Palin 46%, Oth 2%
    Senate
    Democrat +7
    Close Races — Dems NH (defeating Sununu), NC (defeating Dole), Oregon (defeating Smith), LA (Landrieu hold)
    Reps MN (Coleman), KY (McConnell), GA (Chambliss, after runoff)
    House
    Dem +23